Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.011889 0.013442 0.015122 0.017075 0.019283 0.021705 0.024561
2025-11-02 0.009349 0.011468 0.013954 0.017087 0.020934 0.025508 0.031368
2025-11-09 0.007784 0.010096 0.012961 0.016779 0.021740 0.027977 0.036435
2025-11-16 0.006880 0.009339 0.012531 0.016980 0.023035 0.031008 0.042335
2025-11-23 0.006069 0.008570 0.011945 0.016840 0.023774 0.033276 0.047337
2025-11-30 0.005592 0.008182 0.011801 0.017239 0.025227 0.036573 0.053989
2025-12-07 0.004929 0.007447 0.011080 0.016716 0.025271 0.037825 0.057746
2025-12-14 0.004442 0.006913 0.010585 0.016454 0.025638 0.039528 0.062263
2025-12-21 0.003974 0.006358 0.010000 0.015983 0.025617 0.040604 0.065854
2025-12-28 0.003800 0.006242 0.010071 0.016531 0.027219 0.044302 0.073889
2026-01-04 0.003594 0.006053 0.010005 0.016843 0.028450 0.047481 0.081320
2026-01-11 0.003425 0.005907 0.009992 0.017231 0.029824 0.050985 0.089567
2026-01-18 0.003172 0.005602 0.009696 0.017126 0.030371 0.053176 0.095811
2026-01-25 0.002962 0.005352 0.009473 0.017129 0.031106 0.055749 0.102963
2026-02-01 0.002724 0.005031 0.009098 0.016821 0.031247 0.057267 0.108299
2026-02-08 0.002586 0.004879 0.009008 0.017022 0.032327 0.060550 0.117183
2026-02-15 0.002412 0.004645 0.008749 0.016882 0.032747 0.062635 0.123937
2026-02-22 0.002325 0.004569 0.008775 0.017282 0.034229 0.066828 0.135151
2026-03-01 0.002129 0.004265 0.008345 0.016757 0.033852 0.067394 0.139146
2026-03-08 0.001983 0.004046 0.008060 0.016495 0.033971 0.068932 0.145230
2026-03-15 0.001825 0.003792 0.007688 0.016023 0.033621 0.069490 0.149304
2026-03-22 0.001788 0.003783 0.007806 0.016572 0.035432 0.074605 0.163488
2026-03-29 0.001729 0.003722 0.007812 0.016885 0.036763 0.078814 0.176052